The drama surrounding the debt brake and the long turnaround of Friedrich Merz

Täuscht Friedrich Merz seine Wähler?

The last federal election is just two weeks old and before there is even a firm coalition agreement between the SPD and CDU/CSU, the next long-running topic is already there: the debt brake . And suddenly it is Friedrich Merz in particular who wants to reform the debt brake. For his voters, this is one thing above all: a breach of promise.

The new drama is the same old story. The traffic light coalition under Olaf Scholz (SPD) collapsed over the question of whether the government should agree to new debt. During the election campaign, the Union then asserted its plans to stick to the so-called "black zero" . Now, a good two weeks after the election, Merz has decided to make a U-turn. But first, let's start from the beginning:

The debt brake is a fiscal policy instrument that obliges the federal and state governments to balance their budgets as far as possible without taking on new debt ( maximum 0.35% of GDP ). This is also stipulated in Section 109 of the Basic Law . In order to be able to take on more debt than is legally permitted, a two-thirds majority in the German Bundestag is required.

~500 billion euros for infrastructure and defense~

In detail, Friedrich Merz is concerned with a 500 billion euro package that he wants to push through parliament. The old one, of course. Because there, according to the current majority, the CDU, SPD and Greens have the required two-thirds majority. In the new Bundestag, which will be constituted on March 25, 2025, they do not have this and would be dependent on further votes. The package is intended in particular to enable investments in infrastructure and defense. While the left of the political spectrum in particular has long been calling for this additional new debt, the conservative right remains very skeptical when it comes to lifting the debt brake. For them, there is a concrete risk of an excessive financial burden on future generations .

~Green Party leader accuses Merz of deception~

But how did this about-face in Merz's financial policy come about? Officially, Merz says he is concerned about the geopolitical situation regarding Russia and China , to which the government must now respond. After the withdrawal of support from the USA under Donald Trump, higher defense spending is necessary. He also speaks of economic challenges that are to be financed through new debt. However, there is already speculation that the Union had already agreed on this approach internally before the federal election, since they would have to make compromises in the event of exploratory talks with the SPD. But isn't that a deception of the voters?

Yes, that's it. For weeks during the election campaign, the Union campaigned on the grounds that it would not suspend the debt brake and would not risk new debt. Along with migration, this was a central issue in the CDU/CSU election campaign. This is how they reached voters and won votes. And now, two weeks after the election, this central election promise has suddenly collapsed. On Political Ash Wednesday, Green Party leader Felix Banaszak even accused Friedrich Merz of deception.

Speaking of the Greens: What is the situation (as of March 10, 2025) with the Greens' approval of the financial package ? They are the deciding factor for the reform of the debt brake. At the moment they are refusing to give their approval . Carsten Linnemann has already stated that he is willing to negotiate and seek talks with the Greens to find a compromise.

In the end, the Union will probably somehow be able to get the votes it needs for its new debt policy in the old parliament. There may also be good reasons for the measures. In the context of the federal election and the Union's actual election promises, however, one thing remains certain: a breach of promise.